If the Confederacy Won the War Between the States: A Scenario [Part 2]

Editor's note: This essay is the second and final installment of a series that explores an American history alternative timeline in which The Confederate States of American won the Second War of Independence and became a separate nation. Read Part 1 here.

1939: WWII

Decades of relative peace on the North American continent after WWI drive cooperation and competition between the USA and CSA. Trade and migration deals between the two nations lead to an intermingling of cultures, technology, and resources to move across the border. Union grocery stores are full of Southern crop, and Southern citizens drive cars manufactured in the North. The CSA becomes a global powerhouse in the petroleum market. Oil fields in Texas and Venezuela make the CSA incredibly rich and energy self-sufficient. Northern factories become reliant on Southern oil as it’s cheaper for the Union to import it from Southern pipelines than it is to refine it themselves. For the first time since 1861, the North and the South have seemed to come to a quiet equilibrium. While still rivals, they depend on each other for continued growth and prosperity.
​

Until one fateful day in 1939. On September 1st, Nazi Germany invades Poland. Spiraling the world into yet another brutal war in Europe. In this alternative timeline, the Russian Federation does not also invade Poland to the east, instead, they become a bulwark. Holding the lines at Ukraine and Belarus initially and prevent Germany from advancing any further eastward. Later on, however, the Russians officially join the Allies against the Axis forces. The Russians use this opportunity to invade and eventually annex Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania under the pretext that the Russians need that land to open new fronts against the Germans. The USA and CSA strongly condemn Germany’s actions but at this point remain uninvolved. In 1940 however, circumstances change, at least for the CSA. Germany invades France, an action deemed unacceptable by the CSA due to France being the CSA’s largest trading partner of tobacco. Not only that, but German U boats in the Atlantic attacked CSA merchant ships delivering arms and goods to France and the UK. Seeing this as an attack on Southern honor and sovereignty, the CSA congress in Richmond vote to join the Allied forces in Europe and declare war on Nazi Germany. The USA in this timeline still does not get directly involved in Europe. Instead, by this time, the USA provides the CSA with ships, planes, and weapons to support their efforts in Europe.



The USA is unable to stay uninvolved for long though, when on December 7th 1941, the Imperial Japanese Navy attacks the USA naval base at Pearl Harbor, officially causing the USA to join the war against the Axis powers. Fierce fighting in Europe and the Pacific causes the USA and CSA to work closer with each other than ever before. For the first time since 1861, Northern and Southern troops were fighting on the same battlefield, not against each other, but side by side. In 1942, a secret project begins to build a weapon that will end the war. A joint effort between CSA and USA scientists: the Manhattan Project. The USA provides the industry and manpower, while the CSA provides the land, uranium from Tennessee, and funding for the project. On July 16th, 1945, the Trinity is detonated in the deserts of the Confederate state of New Mexico at Los Alamos. The ultimate demonstration of Confederate and Union brotherhood became a smoldering crater in the white sand. Fat Man and Little Boy, both bearing the Confederate Battle Flag, were detonated over Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Finally ending the most brutal war the world had ever seen.  
​

Post WWII - Modern Day

In this scenario, the world after WWII I speculate would be much more peaceful. The USA and CSA become the de-facto global superpowers. They have total domination especially over the western hemisphere. Joint nuclear doctrines between the USA and CSA make them untouchable. Since the Soviet Union never formed due to USA intervention during the Russian Revolution, the Cold War never occurs. Wars to “contain communism” never occur in Vietnam and Korea. Other nations in Europe such as France, England, and the Russian Federation still acquire nuclear weapons, however the threat of total nuclear annihilation isn’t as pronounced as the Russian Federation in this scenario is an ally of the USA. The Chinese Civil War also likely doesn’t happen (at least in the form that we saw in our real timeline) due to the lack of Soviet influence and the rise of Communism.



The Civil Rights movement in the CSA probably looks very different than how it did in our real timeline. In this alternative timeline, the CSA and USA are still largely racist and segregationist. However, risking yet again becoming an isolated pariah state, the CSA would slowly over time grant more rights to black and African citizens. In the CSA, the Civil Rights movement is likely a lot quieter and more subdued. Race relations within the South at this time are likely nonviolent, however each race still bears distrust towards each other. Confederate blacks still largely live within their own communities, however by 1960 black Confederate citizens are given the same rights as Whites. These rights aren’t given due to protests, demonstrations, or speakers. Instead, the rights are given due to the normalization of black Confederates within the CSA over time. Integration is never forcefully enforced within the South. Instead, policies of “freedom of association” are in place to allow Black and White businesses and institutions to choose on their own to integrate.


In 2026, the CSA and USA are very close allies. Militarily, economically, and culturally they are very close. The question of reunification is sometimes floated around however ultimately shot down on both sides. While the USA and CSA are allies, they are still each culturally distinct. The staunch traditionalists in the CSA especially are against it due to it spitting in the faces of the sacrifices that the men of 1861 made.



The USA and CSA become reliant on each other for space travel. NASA is a joint department where the USA manufactures rockets, and the CSA launches them off the coasts of Texas, Florida, and Venezuela. The CSA becomes a cultural powerhouse with Atlanta being home to “Dixiewood”. Confederate films, music, food, and art become a staple worldwide.


​
Author's note: If you’ve read this far, I hope you enjoyed my exploration of this alternate history. I sincerely appreciate you. I hope this sparked an interest in history in you and made you think differently about any preconceptions you may have had about the South. That being said, this is of course all a thought experiment and nobody can truly predict how history would have been different.